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With football clubs Football Live Scores going public like dominoes throughout the latter quarter of the 20th century, it was also around this time that finding the next level of investment from potential directors became all-important. As already noted, Chelsea and Manchester City are the most prominent examples of what intensive, well-structured investment can achieve, and the world waits in anticipation for the next financial fairytale. Important though vast resources seem to be, there has been one notable instance of good scouting alone being responsible for the ultimate success. In terms of futures betting, undoubtedly the biggest shock of the Premier League’s existence came in May 2016, when Leicester City was crowned as league champions despite commanding odds as distant as 5000/1 at some sportsbooks. Amongst their ranks were the likes of true Englishmen Danny Drinkwater, Danny Simpson, Marc Albrighton and Jamie Vardy, all of whom had been rejected by other clubs at youth level, with many slogging their way up through several lower leagues before becoming part of Leicester’s “miracle squad” of 2015-16. Riyad Mahrez and N’Golo Kanté (currently of Manchester City and Chelsea, respectively) were also huge discoveries bought at a relatively negligible price. Both arrived from obscurity in France, and were rejected at youth level by all of the biggest French clubs. Like its predecessors and its successors, the 2018-19 season also saw a number of significant shock results in the moneyline market. Not all of them involved aforementioned “surprise package” Wolves, and one notable recent shock came at the league-low, 11,000-capacity Vitality Stadium, as Bournemouth destroyed a valuable Chelsea squad 4-0 back in January. There was also the day Arsenal all but gave up their hopes of finishing in the top four, going down 3-2 at home to Crystal Palace, with the victors getting the club’s first-ever win at the Emirates Stadium, and the first away to Arsenal since October 1994. Leicester City was the biggest longshot ever to win the EPL in 2015/16 The Premier League is England’s top double round-robin league.
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Let’s say it’s the top of the seventh inning in an MLB game, and the home team is ahead 4‑3. The pregame betting markets closed (at market maker books) with the home team as a 62% favorite to win the game, and the total closed at 9.5 with the over at a 52% break-even percentage. You want to make an in-play moneyline for the game. You look in your database for games that closed with similar lines (say with the home team as between a 59% and 65% favorite and totals between 8.5 and 10.5) where the home team was ahead by one run in the top of the seventh. Then you just count what percentage of those games the home team ended up winning, and there’s your line. You wouldn’t want people to have to run these calculations during the game, so this process is automated — either by using fast database queries or by precomputing the answers. What I just described is a simpliﬁed version of how one could make an in-play line. I don’t know how accurately this process describes what happens at the various vendors, and this sort of analysis is only one piece of the puzzle when I make a line. But the basic idea is there. You take information about the strength of the teams (pregame closing lines), information about the game state (the score, the inning and/or how much time is remaining, and any other relevant information like who has the ball, position on the ﬁeld, and so on), and combine them intelligently to come up with a line. Potential problems with live betting odds There are two major problems with this, and you may already have thought of them both.
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